What if Oil Peak happens?

Recent Read : Berlin Peak Oil Conference
It's a report regarding the Peak Oil conference held at Berlin. The conference is attended by scientists, econimists and industrial experts. It's interesting to see what the top minds of our planet have to say.

I have played this scenario with a few friends before.

One of them believed that there might yet be hope for new energy technologies and solutions to replace oil. Another agrees that there will be a regression but the progress will be slow and gradual.

I tend to be more pragmatic and have a more pessimistic regard for human nature. I agree mostly with what the authur of Life after the Oil Crash said, that Oil Crash will come abruptly and the economy will collapse. As a result, the world will fall into arnarchy with billions of people starving to death.

But it might not even come to that. The book hinted but not quite highlight that the world leaders KNOW about the situation. They also know that if they allow the situation to worsen until society falls into anarchy, they will more likely be the targets of angry mobs. So they will not allow the situation to worsen to that state.

But how? Here is my speculation.

If I am top world leaders (the likes of G.W.Bush), I will find means and ways to institute a controlled global depopulation until world population is small enough for a gradual regression (or evolution, if you please) to another society state.

What does that mean? Simply, War World 3. Find some excuse to start a global war, with the main objective to depopulate as much as possible. After certain state, when population has been sufficiently reduced, then stop the war, then START on alternative energy projects and slowly evolve our society state to something more sensible than capitalism.

And that is my optimistic speculation. My pessimistic guess will involve Weapon of Mass Destruction and miscalculation which may involve the extinction of human race.

Interestingly, after the discussion, regardless of our stance or speculation on human future, we all agreed that there will be some form of regression and depopulation, although the optimist remained firmed that it will be humane and moral process (Of course, we all want that.).

When asked what Singapore should do, I suggested that besides starting immediately to source for alternative energy source, we need to get hold of arable land in the Malaysia penisular. The best case is of course via diplomacy. Otherwise, military action might be unavoidable.

However, regardless of what was said, we are nobody, so those discussion are more akin to a fantasy story discussion than anything else.

If you have something to say regarding this issue, I am interested to here it. email me at zuraffo@yahoo.com